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Astral Codex Ten’s November 2026 links post collects commentary on AI risks, California flood forecasts, work and status, and other topics. Its author cautions that the links have not all been independently verified and may contain errors or misleading claims.
Astral Codex Ten has published its November 2026 links roundup, a collection of items on topics including AI risk forecasts, California flood preparedness, work and social status, and community news. The author says the links have not each been independently checked and warns that readers commonly identify errors or misleading descriptions in a few items per roundup.
Among the roundup’s most consequential items are forecasts attributed to Sentinel, described by the post as a disaster-forecasting organization. The author reports Sentinel forecast a 25% chance of a rogue AI exfiltrating its weights over the next 12 months. The post gives no further information about how that forecast was defined or what assumptions underpin it.
The roundup also relays a warning from a Sentinel-affiliated forecaster that California’s coming winter is expected to be much rainier than normal. That forecaster reportedly put the chance of a major flood at 2.5%. The author then asked an AI forecasting system to translate the estimate into possible damage scenarios. Its answers included an 8% chance of flooding causing at least $10,000 in damage to at least 100,000 homes, and a 2% chance of that level of damage affecting at least one million homes. These are the AI system’s interpretations as reported by the author, not figures independently validated in the supplied material.
Other entries highlight a discussion about whether AI-driven job loss would leave people with more leisure or create a loss of purpose. The linked essay, by Clara on Asterisk, argues that societies with many people outside productive work have often organized life around social alliances and status. The post also mentions an article about UFO skepticism, a renewed debate over COVID-19’s origins, a reported meeting between two Satmar Rebbes, and a profile of Berkeley’s rationalist and effective-altruist communities.
Forecasts Put AI and Flood Risks on the List
The roundup places low-probability, high-impact risks alongside cultural commentary, but the risk estimates should not be mistaken for established predictions. The California figures are especially layered: a forecaster’s reported 2.5% estimate is followed by an AI system’s attempt to define possible consequences, then by the author’s discussion of an ARkStorm scenario. Each step involves a different source and framing.
For readers, that distinction matters. Flood forecasts may prompt practical attention to roofs, gutters and local preparedness, but the roundup does not provide an official weather outlook, emergency guidance, or a method for checking the estimates. Likewise, the 25% AI forecast is a reported probability, not evidence that a model has escaped or that a specific incident is underway. The post is a guide to discussions and claims worth following, rather than a single verified news report.
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A Monthly Collection With Caveats
Astral Codex Ten presents its links posts as a selection of material from across the internet, often with the author’s own commentary. The November entry opens with a qualification: the author has not independently verified each link and says commenters typically find evidence that two or three items per post are wrong or misleading. The author says corrections are made when found, but cannot guarantee every problem will have been caught before publication.
The format ranges from short observations and jokes to substantial essays and forecasts. Some entries are explicitly personal reactions: the author says one UFO-skepticism article did not feel especially novel, while praising a comment by radio astronomer Kevin Lacker about the Wow! signal. The roundup also includes playful anagrams and an anecdote about NVIDIA agreeing to buy Hugging Face for a precisely stated price. The supplied text does not establish those items through independent reporting, so they remain claims or links presented by the roundup.
“I haven’t independently verified each link.”
— Astral Codex Ten author
Forecast Methods and Claims Need Checking
The roundup does not provide the underlying forecast pages, definitions, or methodologies for the AI exfiltration probability or the California flood estimates. It is also unclear what Sentinel means by “rogue AI,” how the 12-month period is measured, or what event would count as successful exfiltration. For the flood figures, the supplied text does not establish whether the estimates use a shared definition of “major flood” or how the AI system produced its damage scenarios.
The post’s own caveat applies to the rest of its contents: it says some links may be wrong or misleading and that corrections may appear later. The supplied material ends partway through an item about an article on natural law, so it does not show the complete roundup. The reported NVIDIA-Hugging Face deal, the political meeting, and the other linked claims are not independently substantiated in the material provided.
Corrections and Forecast Updates
The author says they will correct errors as they are noticed and highlight important corrections later. Readers seeking to act on the California warning would need to consult local authorities and current weather and emergency-management information; the roundup itself does not offer an official warning or a timetable for updated forecasts.
The AI and flood probabilities may change as forecasters revise their views or as the relevant time periods progress. No follow-up date, forecast update schedule, or independent review is specified in the supplied post. The immediate next step for readers is to check the original linked sources and distinguish their stated estimates from the author’s commentary and the AI system’s interpretations.
Key Questions
What is the November 2026 links post?
It is an Astral Codex Ten roundup of links and commentary on topics including AI, flood forecasts, social status, and community news. It is not presented as a single reported investigation.
Did Sentinel predict a rogue AI will escape?
No. The roundup says Sentinel forecast a 25% chance over the next 12 months of a rogue AI exfiltrating its weights. That is a reported probability, not confirmation that such an event has happened or will happen.
What does the post say about California flood risk?
It relays a forecaster’s reported 2.5% chance of a major flood and describes separate damage scenarios generated when the author asked an AI forecasting system to interpret the risk. The post does not provide enough methodology to independently assess those estimates.
Are all the links independently verified?
No. The author explicitly says they have not independently verified every link and warns that some items may be wrong or misleading. They say corrections will be made as problems are identified.
Source: astralcodexten.com
